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206179

The necessity, sufficiency and desirability of experts as value forecasters

Gordon Welty

pp. 363-379

Abstract

A typology of long-range forecasting exercises is developed, with facts and values as one dimension where forecast subject matter can be located, description and prescription as a second dimension where the function of the exercise can be located, and expertise of the forecaster as a third dimension. Three questions are addressed. Are experts desirable in long-range descriptive and prescriptive value forecasting? Are experts necessary for descriptive value forecasting? Are experts sufficient for prescriptive value forecasting? We suggest that the use of experts in long-range value forecasting exercises is of questionable desirability on analytical grounds, is unnecessary in light of a series of comparative empirical studies, and on social psychological theoretical grounds may well be insufficient as well.

Publication details

Published in:

Leinfellner Werner, Köhler Eckehart (1974) Developments in the methodology of social science. Dordrecht, Springer.

Pages: 363-379

DOI: 10.1007/978-94-010-2259-0_12

Full citation:

Welty Gordon (1974) „The necessity, sufficiency and desirability of experts as value forecasters“, In: W. Leinfellner & E. Köhler (eds.), Developments in the methodology of social science, Dordrecht, Springer, 363–379.