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Satan, Saint Peter and saint Petersburg

Paul BarthaJohn BarkerAlan Hájek

pp. 629-660

Abstract

We examine a distinctive kind of problem for decision theory, involving what we call discontinuity at infinity. Roughly, it arises when an infinite sequence of choices, each apparently sanctioned by plausible principles, converges to a ‘limit choice’ whose utility is much lower than the limit approached by the utilities of the choices in the sequence. We give examples of this phenomenon, focusing on Arntzenius et al.’s Satan’s apple, and give a general characterization of it. In these examples, repeated dominance reasoning (a paradigm of rationality) apparently gives rise to a situation closely analogous to having intransitive preferences (a paradigm of irrationality). Indeed, the agents in these examples are vulnerable to a money pump set-up despite having preferences that exhibit no obvious defect of rationality. We explore several putative solutions to such problems, particularly those that appeal to binding and to deliberative dynamics. We consider the prospects for these solutions, concluding that if they fail, the examples show that money pump arguments are invalid.

Publication details

Published in:

Peijnenburg Jeanne, Wenmackers Sylvia (2014) Infinite regress in decision theory, philosophy of science, and formal epistemology. Synthese 191 (4).

Pages: 629-660

DOI: 10.1007/s11229-013-0379-9

Full citation:

Bartha Paul, Barker John, Hájek Alan (2014) „Satan, Saint Peter and saint Petersburg“. Synthese 191 (4), 629–660.