Repository | Journal | Volume | Article

237127

Beauty and the bets

Christopher Hitchcock

pp. 405-420

Abstract

In the Sleeping Beauty problem, Beauty is uncertain whether the outcome of a certain coin toss was heads or tails. One argument suggests that her degree of belief in heads should be 1/3, while a second suggests that it should be 1/2. Prima facie, the argument for 1/2 appears to be stronger. I offer a diachronic Dutch Book argument in favor of 1/3. Even for those who are not routinely persuaded by diachronic Dutch Book arguments, this one has some important morals.

Publication details

Published in:

(2004) Synthese 139 (3).

Pages: 405-420

DOI: 10.1023/B:SYNT.0000024889.29125.c0

Full citation:

Hitchcock Christopher (2004) „Beauty and the bets“. Synthese 139 (3), 405–420.