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To give a surprise exam, use game theory

Elliott Sober

pp. 355-373

Abstract

This paper proposes a game-theoretic solution of the surprise examination problem. It is argued that the game of “matching pennies” provides a useful model for the interaction of a teacher who wants her exam to be surprising and students who want to avoid being surprised. A distinction is drawn between prudential and evidential versions of the problem. In both, the teacher should not assign a probability of zero to giving the exam on the last day. This representation of the problem provides a diagnosis of where the backwards induction argument, which “proves” that no surprise exam is possible, is mistaken.

Publication details

Published in:

(1998) Synthese 115 (3).

Pages: 355-373

DOI: 10.1023/A:1005012607804

Full citation:

Sober Elliott (1998) „To give a surprise exam, use game theory“. Synthese 115 (3), 355–373.